AFL Round 10 Review.

In a closely contested match on a wet night, the Melbourne Demons unfortunately came up short by a mere 4 points against the impressive Port Adelaide Power. Although the Demons put up a strong fight, the night didn’t unfold as they had hoped. The loss not only impacted their ladder position, sliding them down to 4th, but also dealt a significant blow with the injury to their key player and one of the league’s finest, Clayton Oliver, sidelining him for a month.

This next month of footy presents a challenging path for the Demons, facing the Dockers, Blues, Pies, and Cats in succession. While their performances have been slightly below expectations recently, including losses to the Bombers and Power, as well as a narrow win against the Suns, the Demons remain a formidable force even without Oliver. However, their margin for error has become narrower than anticipated for a team considered Premiership favorites (currently priced at $5.00, tied with the Brisbane Lions for 2nd place behind the Collingwood Pies at $3.75).

The Demons’ goal is to secure a top 2 finish, given the potential of away encounters against the Lions or Power if they finish 3rd or 4th. Fortunately, they have a favorable schedule to close out the season. It is crucial for them to maintain a winning record, or at the very least break even, during this upcoming month of footy to position themselves strongly for the finals.

If you believe the Demons can weather this period without Oliver and maintain their competitive edge, the premiership odds at $5.00 might be an appealing option. Securing a top 2 spot would not only grant them home-ground advantage at the iconic MCG throughout the finals series but also capitalize on their formidable defensive system and a wealth of A-grade players, making them a force to be reckoned with. It would be a difficult task to bet against the Demons claiming their 2nd flag in the last 3 years.

See Melbourne’s odds and more by clicking the below link.

Charlie Curnow’s outstanding performance against Collingwood, where he scored three goals, has pushed him to the top of the Coleman Medal leaderboard. Despite not reaching his usual high standards, Curnow’s goals were crucial in saving the Blues from a potential thrashing. While his opponent, Darcy Moore, was the standout player on the ground, Curnow’s efforts and performance cannot be overlooked, considering the poor delivery and lack of support he had during the game.

As mentioned, Curnow’s three-goal haul was enough to surpass his main rival, Jeremy Cameron, in the race for the Coleman Medal. Cameron, the star forward for the Cats, went goalless for the first time this season and struggled with accuracy in front of goal. This reflected the Cats’ recent struggles, which brings other contenders in the market back into the race.

Currently, both Jeremy Cameron and Charlie Curnow have equal odds of $2.10 to win the Coleman Medal. Let’s examine each player’s case and consider a few other potential contenders:

Jeremy Cameron ($2.10) – Known as maybe the premier player in the competition, Cameron possesses a balanced goal-scoring ability as well as the capability to create opportunities for others. However, given the short odds and the fact that more than half the season remains, there is a possibility of him being rested due to Geelong’s diligent management of their aging stars. Additionally, Cameron may be required to play further up the ground to assist the Cats’ struggling ball movement. Considering these factors, it might be wise to look elsewhere for value in the market.

Charlie Curnow ($2.10) – Curnow’s recent performances have propelled him to the top of the leaderboard. He holds an advantage in this market due to his vital role as the main target, match winner, and goal scorer for the Blues. Despite having Harry McKay as another goal-scoring option, McKay has been playing further up the ground,  and may potentially help by taking away a superior defender from Curnow. The supporting forwards in Carlton’s lineup, such as Owies, Durdin, Motlop, and Silvagni, are more hardworking players who are unlikely to kick bags of goals. Therefore, Curnow is heavily relied upon to produce goals, making him a strong contender. Furthermore, the Blues’ desperation for a finals campaign means he is unlikely to be rested or managed. In my opinion, Curnow is fair value and has a good chance of winning the Coleman Medal.

Tom Hawkins ($12.00) – Hawkins is the third favorite in the market but at much higher odds than the top two contenders. Although he faces the same dilemma as Cameron regarding potential rest, the increased odds balance out the risk to some extent. In a “perfect world” scenario, Hawkins is just as likely as anyone to win the Coleman Medal. He plays in a finals-level side with a great offensive system, and his reputation as a star forward over the last decade speaks for itself. As he ages, Hawkins will remain close to goal, further increasing his chances. At $12.00, the Cats legend offers good value and is a strong candidate for his second Coleman Medal.

Ben King ($51.00) – King is the long-shot selection in the market. After a slow start to the year following an ACL injury, he has recently gained momentum, scoring an impressive 18 goals in the last five games. Although he is 11 goals behind the leader, Curnow, King’s current form suggests he is capable of closing the gap. As the clear main target inside 50 for a competitive side and displaying accuracy in front of goal, King has the talent and opportunity to make a significant impact. At odds of $51.00, he becomes an intriguing option to consider.

Other contenders such as Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, and Tex Walker face challenges due to competition within their own sides or factors such as age and rest requirements.

In summary, while Jeremy Cameron and Charlie Curnow are currently tied as favorites to win the Coleman Medal, there are factors that could impact their chances. Tom Hawkins offers better value at higher odds, and Ben King presents an interesting long-shot option. Ultimately, the Coleman Medal race is far from decided, and considering the various factors at play will be crucial in making an informed choice.