Lachie’s AFL Round 13 Preview: Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions | Betting Tips

Despite the Hawthorn Hawks’ current low position on the ladder and their disappointing performance against Port Adelaide last weekend, I believe they have the potential to surprise punters at the handicap line in their Saturday afternoon clash against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. Here are the reasons why:

Brisbane’s Away Struggles: The Lions have struggled away from home this season. Their mixed results include a heavy defeat against Port Adelaide, a close loss to the Bulldogs, a comfortable victory over the struggling Giants, a seemingly good win against the troubled Blues, and a frustrating loss to the Crows. These performances do not instill confidence in consistently seeing the best of the Lions, particularly when comparing them to their impressive victories at the Gabba against strong opponents like the Demons, Magpies, Suns, Dockers, and Bombers.

Handball Happy Hawks: The Hawks have been one of the most aggressive handballing sides this season. While a handball-heavy strategy can be highly effective when executed well, it also comes with risks if the opposition applies pressure. The Lions, considered slower in their style of play, not particularly known for relentless pressure, and occasionally prone to switching off in non-primetime games, could struggle to cope with the Hawks’ fast-paced handballing approach. This could lead to the Hawks capitalizing on goal-scoring bursts and keeping themselves within the handicap, giving them a chance to compete for the win

Recent Form and the Return of their Captain: Although their last game was a difficult away match against a rampaging Power, it’s important not to overreact. The Hawks were without their captain and star player, James Sicily, who was serving a one-game suspension. Sicily’s return for this game will provide not only leadership but also immense skill, talent, and courage to the team. His recent best-on-ground performance against the Saints highlighted his impact, leading the Hawks to an impressive upset victory. Moreover, the Hawks’ previous two out of three games have shown considerable improvement, with the one poor performance occurring in Sicily’s absence.

Considering these factors, I expect the Hawks to exceed expectations and cover the handicap line of +25.5. For the more daring punters, there may even be value in considering a straight-up win for the Hawks at odds of $4.10.