Lachie’s AFL Round 15 Preview: Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons | Betting Tips.

This highly anticipated matchup between the Geelong Cats and Melbourne Demons marks the commencement of Round 15 in the AFL. Many consider these two teams to be the top contenders of 2022, with the Cats clinching the premiership title while the Demons held the position of premiership favorites for most of the year, only to face disappointment in the finals campaign.

The 2023 season has presented its fair share of ups and downs for both sides. They have encountered some unexpected results, including a hard-fought away victory against the Suns at Metricon and a surprising home loss to the then lowly Giants in Geelong. Various factors such as motivation (post-premiership hangover) and injuries have been attributed to their struggles, leaving them currently placed 10th on the ladder with a 6-7 record. However, their healthy percentage of 113% indicates that they remain a formidable force and have seldom been uncompetitive. Hosting the Demons, who have also experienced some uncharacteristic losses and performances, the Cats find themselves in a precarious situation. Conversely, the Demons have been tactically pacing themselves and have secured the 3rd spot on the ladder, positioning themselves favorably for another premiership bid.

The odds for this match suggest a closely contested battle, with the Demons appearing to have the edge. However, the Cats’ reputation and historical home ground advantage at the Cattery make it challenging to make a definitive prediction at first glance.

Nevertheless, I firmly believe that Melbourne will emerge victorious in this clash, and I am leaning towards them covering the -1.5 handicap. Here are a few reasons supporting my prediction:

1. Personnel: Superstar midfielder Clayton Oliver is poised to make his return to the Demons’ lineup after being sidelined for a month due to a hamstring injury. In contrast, the Cats, while welcoming back several key players, are likely to be without their captain and exceptional midfielder, Dangerfield, who suffered a collapsed lung in the previous weekend’s game. With Oliver’s return bolstering an already outstanding midfield, and the Cats losing their primary weapon and leader in the middle of the field, it is reasonable to anticipate the Demons dominating the trenches significantly.
2. Diminished Cats and Well-Positioned Demons: Geelong has demonstrated the ability to deliver dominant performances, but they have struggled this season when facing off against top-tier teams. Though never disgraced, it seems that their best is no longer the absolute best, which is precisely what they will need to contend against the strong and star-studded Demons. Melbourne recently defeated the premiership favorites, the Pies, at the MCG on Kings’ Birthday, indicating that they are well-positioned for a strong second half of the season.
3. Geelong Vulnerability at Home: The once impregnable GMHBA Stadium may no longer possess the same aura of invincibility. The recent defeat of the Cats by the mid-tier Giants at their home ground has instilled a newfound belief among other teams that success is achievable when venturing to the Cattery. Although the Demons suffered a loss to the Cats at this venue last year, the circumstances and air of invincibility have since shifted.

To conclude, considering the various factors such as personnel changes, form in 2023, and a potential vulnerability at home, the stronger Demons should emerge triumphant as they gear up for a premiership push in the latter half of the year. Expect the Demons to cover the -1.5 handicap.