Lachie’s AFL Round 19 Preview: Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks

It is always a beautiful sight to witness an AFL match on an early Saturday afternoon. Today, although we may not have the classic matchup to match the slot, it is sure to be entertaining given the fast-paced and gung-ho ball movement style that both teams love to play, leading to some open play.

The Tigers currently hold the 11th spot on the ladder but are only one game away from securing a spot in the top 8. Unfortunately for them, their percentage of 99.78 may become an issue as the competition intensifies towards the last round, with at least 10 other contenders vying for the last 4 spots in the finals. Despite this challenge, the Tigers have been performing well lately, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. However, it is worth noting that in those 4 wins, their largest margin of victory was 38 points, and it came against the struggling Eagles. Consequently, today’s priority for the Tigers is not only securing a win but also improving their percentage, which makes their matchup against the 16th-placed team all the more crucial. We can expect the Tigers to be highly motivated to produce a solid 4-quarter performance today.

As for the Hawks, currently situated at a lowly 16th place on the ladder, their position is not entirely unexpected or disappointing considering they are in the early stages of a major rebuild. Nonetheless, they have demonstrated their potential as a dangerous football side on occasions. Just four weeks ago, in a similar fixture at the MCG on a Saturday afternoon, they comfortably defeated the impressive flag contender Lions. Some skeptics may attribute the victory to the Lions’ inability to leave the Sunshine State, but it is important to note that the Lions narrowly lost to another top contender, the Demons, last Friday night in a game they could have won. Additionally, the Hawks boast an impressive record at Marvel Stadium. It should be acknowledged that their poor performances in previous losses were in the absence of their captain and star defender, James Sicily, whose return to the side should bolster their performance.

Although one might be tempted to back the Hawks based on the provided information, I still believe that while it may not be a complete slaughter, the Tigers are likely to win reasonably comfortably. Another crucial factor to consider is the distinct playing style of each team. We are well aware that the keys to the Tigers’ game plan and system lie in hard running, fast ball movement, and swift transitions. On the other hand, the Hawks also exhibit a similar style, with their main difference being their status as one of the highest handballing teams in the league. They rely on their quick hands and good running to expose opponents who lack sufficient pressure or pace. However, the Tigers possess the ideal personnel and system to apply enough pressure, causing the Hawks’ players to fumble while attempting their handball-heavy style. Additionally, the Tigers’ running capacity ensures that they do not get caught out on the spread and the outside.

Consequently, while the Hawks may not disgrace themselves, the 15.5 point line favors the Tigers, who hold an advantage in several major categories, such as personnel, experience, motivation (for securing a finals spot), and game style. All these factors point towards a comfortable win for the Tigers, and I fully anticipate them to cover the -15.5 handicap.