Lachie’s AFL Round 20 Preview: Collingwood Magpies v Carlton Blues | Betting Preview

Introduction:

Arguably two of the biggest clubs in the land are facing off at the iconic MCG on a Friday Night, with both sides not having lost a game in 5 weeks. Does it get any bigger than this? The all-conquering Magpies unsurprisingly come into this game as favorites given their form and production this season. Their style and mentality have even won over some of the most determined Collingwood haters. Meanwhile, the Blues have had a classic Carlton year to date, starting like a house on fire, then facing challenges until their recent 5-game winning streak, where they have won each game by over 50 points. The Blues boast talent that can match any team, but the question remains whether they can prove themselves tonight.

Current Form Analysis:

As mentioned earlier, both sides’ form cannot be questioned. The Blues have won 5 in a row, defeating their opponents convincingly each time. While some may question the strength of their opponents during that time, this season has shown that almost any team can beat anyone, making their achievements praiseworthy. The Pies, too, have won 5 on the trot, with some close games and strong performances against formidable opponents (like Port away and a dominating win against the Suns at Metricon). While the Pies’ form seems slightly better, it’s hard to overlook the momentum the Blues have built.

Blues Missing a Few Key Players:

One of my main concerns for Carlton tonight is the absence of a few of their star players. The Blues aren’t solely reliant on a great system to overcome the loss of key players, but the absence of Sam Walsh and Harry McKay will likely hinder them greatly. Sam Walsh, a young star in the competition, possesses the running and spreading ability that is crucial when facing a lightning-quick side like the Pies. Carlton’s midfield, in general, consists of in-and-under, bull-type players who excel in contests. The loss of Walsh’s speed and agility might prove challenging.

Harry McKay’s absence due to a knee injury sustained against Port is another cause for concern. Some have suggested that this might make the Blues more unpredictable, but it’s likely to make Charlie Curnow the primary target for the Blues’ forward line. However, the experienced Pies’ defense, led by Darcy Moore, is unlikely to allow many, if any, one-on-one contests. Without McKay and with Curnow neutralized, and also without Jack Silvagni, the Blues may struggle to score enough points. They lack a third tall forward who can contribute, leaving them with only Charlie, the second ruckman/tall forward (but raw) Tom De Koning, and a relatively small forward line without McKay and Silvagni.

Magpies Superior System and Run:

The Pies have an advantage here as well. Collingwood’s system is a significant factor contributing to their dominance this season. They excel at pushing extra numbers up to the contest, allowing them to use quick hands and speed to win the ball and spread fast, providing quality delivery to their forwards. They rarely have to resort to long bombs into their forward 50. This style is complemented by their quick and agile squad. On the other hand, despite the Blues’ recent success, they don’t seem to have a clear and effective system in place yet. Many have criticized their style under Michael Voss in the past two years, deeming it too simple and slow. This approach may not work against the Pies, as exposing them requires speed on the ball. The Pies often leave their defenders in one-on-one situations, but the Blues need to move the ball quickly to exploit this weakness, as the Pies’ leg speed allows them to recover swiftly.

Expectations & Prediction for the Match:

Although the history of these two sides and the Pies’ penchant for tight games might suggest a close match, I believe Collingwood has a specific match-up advantage due to their leg speed and fast ball movement, which can expose the slower but resilient Carlton side. While the Blues should be motivated, they have developed a pattern of wilting under pressure, and tonight’s game carries enormous significance for their season. I expect that at some point during the match, the Pies will use their run, daring, and speed to overpower the Blues, resulting in a comfortable victory, covering the -15.5 handicap.