Lachie’s AFL Round 23 Preview: Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions | Betting Preview 

The Venue and Recent Form:
Marvel Stadium will be the battleground for this intriguing matchup. Both teams are entering the contest with mixed form, which adds an air of unpredictability to the encounter. Collingwood secured an impressive victory against the Cats in the previous round, ending a two-game losing streak. However, their recent performances have lacked the kind of dominance that puts fear into their competitors. It’s possible they’ve been conserving their energy for the upcoming finals campaign, as their playoff spot has been secured for a while now.

On the other hand, the Brisbane Lions have been living on the edge, securing two nail-biting wins by a margin of fewer than a goal. While they’ve shown resilience, these victories haven’t been enough to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents. Their form took a hit with an unexpected loss to the Suns and the inability to hold onto leads against strong sides like the Cats and Demons.

Previous Encounter and Historical Performance:
Looking back at the history between these teams, the Lions have held the upper hand, particularly in recent times. They boast an impressive 5-0 record against the Magpies, with four of those wins taking place at the Gabba. The lone exception was the memorable match decided by Zac Bailey’s miracle goal after the siren. It’s worth noting that earlier in the season, the Lions comfortably handed the Magpies their first loss in a convincing manner.

Injury Concerns and Player Availability:
Both teams are facing injury concerns, with key players set to miss the clash. Collingwood will be without some of their star players, including Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, Bobby Hill, and Jordan De Goey, all sidelined due to injuries as they manage their fitness leading up to the finals. On the Lions’ side, they are dealing with the absence of Jack Gunston and the unfortunate loss of young talent Will Ashcroft to an ACL injury for the rest of the year. However, the Magpies undeniably have a larger number of key players missing in this encounter.

Stakes and Motivation:
Crucially, the Lions have much more at stake in this game. A victory would almost guarantee them a top-two spot and a coveted home final in the opening week of the playoffs. Given their outstanding record at the Gabba, where they remain unbeaten this season, securing a home final becomes paramount to their championship aspirations. The Magpies, on the other hand, have already locked in a home final and might be playing a cautious game to keep their star players fresh for the playoffs.

Prediction:
Taking into consideration the injury concerns, recent form, historical matchups, and the motivating factors for each team, the Brisbane Lions appear to have the upper hand in this clash. The -4.5 line in favor of the Lions seems like a comfortable spread for them to cover.