Denver’s efficient pick-and-roll offense, quarterbacked by Nikola Jokić, capitalizes on Washington’s league-worst pick-and-roll defense. The Wizards struggle to defend skilled passing big men and frequently lose assignments in help coverage, creating mismatches for Denver’s cutters like Aaron Gordon and perimeter shooters like Jamal Murray. Denver’s disciplined transition defense is another factor, as it neutralizes Washington’s only reliable offensive weapon: fast breaks.
Both of these teams aren’t among the league’s fastest-paced, run-and-gun sides. Instead, they prefer a slower tempo that supports their defensive schemes, especially given some personnel challenges on that end for both squads. This slower pace typically results in a low-scoring game dominated by half-court offense. With Kevin Durant—one of the most efficient half-court scorers ever—out of the lineup, the Suns are likely to struggle even more with offensive efficiency. Expect a grind-it-out affair, making the under a solid pick.