North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Suns | AFL Round 24 Preview

As the AFL season approaches its final round, the clash between North Melbourne and Gold Coast Suns might not immediately grab attention. Both teams find themselves distanced from the finals race, yet this match holds intriguing narratives that could shape the outcome. Taking place at Blundstone Arena in Hobart on Saturday, August 26, at 1:45pm (AEST), this game offers more than meets the eye.

Motivation Matters: The Prize and The Pick

Undoubtedly, one of the most significant stories surrounding this match revolves around North Melbourne’s motivation to win. Surprisingly, a victory for North could actually hinder their prospects of securing a prized player. The coveted Harley Reid is highly rated, and a win here could potentially cost North Melbourne multiple valuable first-round picks if they aim to trade up for Reid. The speculation has led to discussions of whether North should intentionally lose or “tank” to secure the advantageous position of finishing last and securing the top draft pick.

However, this intriguing situation adds a layer of unpredictability to the game. North Melbourne’s players may be motivated to perform well regardless of draft picks. The desire to win and demonstrate their skills on the field could counterbalance the club’s strategic considerations.

Performance Disparity and Betting Odds

Looking at the recent form, it’s evident that North Melbourne has struggled with five consecutive losses, while Gold Coast Suns have managed only one win in their last five matches. Despite this performance disparity, the betting odds heavily favor Gold Coast Suns, currently priced at around $1.23 for the win. Many fans view the Suns as locks for victory due to the motivation factor discussed earlier.

Deeper Insights: Factors Beyond Form

While the prevailing sentiment points towards a Suns victory, there are critical factors that could influence the game’s dynamics. Gold Coast Suns’ away form this season has been lackluster, with a poor record of 2 wins and 9 losses, along with a low percentage of 79%. This stark contrast to their performance at home has been a significant factor in their inability to contend for a finals spot.

Additionally, the match’s location in Tasmania introduces its own set of conditions. Queensland-based teams often struggle in the colder and windier Tasmanian conditions. Even strong teams like Brisbane Lions have faced challenges against comparatively weaker opponents on this turf. However, North Melbourne has demonstrated a relatively better record in these conditions.

Tip: Expect the Unexpected

Considering the motivations and ladder position it’s easy to lean towards a Gold Coast Suns victory. However, a deeper analysis suggests that North Melbourne might come out strong, particularly in the first quarter. The odds for North Melbourne to win the first quarter are around $2.64, offering an intriguing value.

While North Melbourne might make strategic moves later in the game, the initial momentum and players’ natural desire to compete could result in a strong start. The home ground advantage in Tasmania could play a role as well.

In conclusion, this seemingly ordinary match between North Melbourne and Gold Coast Suns holds layers of complexity. The battle of motivations, the impact of draft picks, away form struggles, and the unique conditions make it a match worth watching closely. While the odds might favor the Suns, our tip suggests keeping an eye on North Melbourne’s strong start in the first quarter.