USPGA Championship 2024: Preview + Expert Tips

The Tournament – Known as the “USPGA”, “US PGA” or “PGA Championship ” the event is run by the Professional Golfers Association (PGA) of America. It started out as a matchplay tournament in 1916, switching to the current, and standard, stroke play format in 1958. And although it’s not played at the same course each year, the custom with the PGA is that it’s usually staged towards the East of the mainland US – with New York State hosting the most renewals (14, including this year).  And to date only 8 times has the tournament been held “out West”.

The field is the normal 156, made up of the game’s leading players, past champions and special invites. There are also 20 places for players drawn from the Professional National Championship (a competition for club professionals), so there’s always a fair share of unknowns in the line-up. To date there have been 103 PGA champions – mostly US players! To date 87 times the trophy has been lifted by an American, then Australia (5), England, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Fiji & Northern Ireland (2 each) and Ireland, South Korea & Germany (all 1). Walter Hagen and Jack Nicklaus (5) have won the PGA most times, followed by Tiger Woods (4).

Formerly billed as “Glory’s last shot” – because it was the last Major of the calendar year – 2019 marked a new place in the schedule for the PGA Championship as it slotted in between the US Masters and the US Open in the month of May.

Prize money: $20.0m ($3.15m to the winner)

Field: 156

Highest-ranked players: Scheffler (1), McIlroy (2), Schauffele (3), Clark (4), Rahm (5), Aberg (6).

Betting market leaders: Scheffler 9/2, McIlroy 17/2, Koepka 16/1, Aberg 18/1, Schauffele 18/1, Rahm 20/1, DeChambeau 28/1, Morikawa 28/1, Homa 33/1, Cantlay 40/1.

2023 Result:

 -9 Brooks Koepka (22/1)

 -7 Scottie Scheffler (8/1)

 -7 Viktor Hovland (30/1)

 -3 Cam Davis (200/1)

 -3 Kurt Kitayama (300/1)

 -3 Bryson DeChambeau (125/1)

Past Winners:

 (2022) Justin Thomas   (Zalatoris – Pereira, Young – Fleetwood, Kirk, Fitzpatrick)

 (2021) Phil Mickelson  (Oosthuizen, Koepka – Lowry, Harrington, Casey, Higgs)

 (2020) Collin Morikawa (Casey, Johnson – Day, DeChambeau, Finau, Scheffler, Wolff)

 (2019) Brooks Koepka   (Johnson – Cantlay, Spieth, Wallace)

 (2018) Brooks Koepka   (Woods – Scott – Cink & Rahm)

 (2017) Justin Thomas   (Molinari, Oosthuizen & Reed – Fowler & Matsuyama)

 (2016) Jimmy Walker    (Day – Summerhays – Grace, Koepka & Matsuyama)

 (2015) Jason Day       (Spieth – Grace – Rose – Koepka & Lahiri)

 (2014) Rory McIlroy    (Mickelson – Fowler & Stenson – Furyk & Palmer)

 (2013) Jason Dufner    (Furyk – Stenson – Blixt – Piercy & Scott)

The Course – This week we’re at the Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky (the 4th time the venue has hosted this tournament). The course is a par 71, and will play 7,457 yards. It was originally designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1986. The course has undergone several renovations over the years, and it was lengthened most recently in 2021. Viewed as not too penal off the tee (although the rough will be tough this week!) it’s more of a second-shot course. There’s some water, not much, and good scoring will be possible for those who play well.

72-Hole Record: 264, Brooks Koepka (2018).

18-Hole Record: 63: Jose Maria Olazabal (2000)

Weather: A potentially wet/stormy week is forecast with a daily precipitation forecast of 10%-80%-50%-10% over the course of the tournament. Temperatures will reach the high 70’s, with plenty of cloud cover during the week. Winds will be light, with maximum wind speeds reaching 8-10mph during the four days.

The Bets of interest:

LUDVIG ABERG – “At the head of the market Scheffler and McIlroy are hugely respected, but for me the American seems plenty short enough (more so after his recent absence for the birth of his first child) and we cashed in on Rory last week in more favourable conditions and in a weaker field. Koepka is hard to gauge with a recent win in Singapore on the LIV Tour masking an otherwise weaker case this year than last. And patience has worn thin on the poor win ratio of Xander Schauffele given his sub-20/1 odds. Jon Rahm, I admit, I can’t quite figure out – the Spaniard could be anything this week. My first bet is on Ludvig Aberg. The 24-year-old has re-written the book when it comes to speed of achievement (DPWT Tour winner, PGA Tour winner, Ryder Cup winner within barely a year) and even if this might be a year too soon in his career, his numbers are great and he was 2nd at Augusta, let’s not forget. I think the young Swede can mount a real challenge this week”.

COLLIN MORIKAWA – “Of all the players I’m backing this week, Morikawa can maybe count himself the most lucky. Not because he’s the worst player, but because he’s had the most chances. That said, his track record in Majors is very good with 8 Top 10’s in his last 16 starts – latest being 3rd at this year’s Masters. Morikawa clearly has the mindset to do well in these events, and raises his game (like Koepka has done) when the Majors come around. Wins in the 2020 edition of this tournament, plus an Open Championship success in 2021, testify. Morikawa ticks a lot of boxes this week, and is fairly priced at 25/1 given that he’s also got bags of form on Nicklaus-designed courses”.

BRYSON DECHAMBEAU – “BdC is similar to another bet this week (Collin Morikawa) in that the American seems to raise his level at the Majors. DeChambeau has Top 10’s in all four Majors – notably a win in the US Open in 2020 and a 6th last time out at Augusta (where he led after R1). Modest efforts since on the LIV Tour could be more to do with the set-up and payment structure of that particular venture, but on a course that should suit, DeChambeau can make his presence felt this week. The 30-year-old is another who has won on a Nicklaus course before (Memorial 2018) and although I would class his odds as fair, rather than generous, I’m happy to back the Californian this week”.